WASHINGTON - Kamala Harris has opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over US presidential rival Donald Trump, according to the latest poll.
Vice president Harris became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee after winning pledges from a majority of delegates after Joe Biden withdrew from the race, her campaign said.
President Biden had faced mounting pressure to pull out after a disastrous performance in a TV debate against Trump at the end of June and a series of political gaffes.
Harris already has the backing of Biden and several other high-profile Democrats to take the party's nomination in August and face off against Trump in the November election.
These include former president Bill Clinton and ex-presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, although Barack Obama is yet to give Harris his backing.
All 50 state Democratic party chairs have also issued their support for Harris, a month away from the party's convention to confirm a nominee on 19 August in Chicago, Illinois.
The big question, however, is can Harris beat Trump in the presidential election should she become her party's nominee?
What do the polls say?
Pollsters were previously primarily focused on Biden versus Trump, but since the TV debate and the speculation surrounding the president they have been hedging their bets somewhat, asking the electorate how Harris might fare against the former president.
It means there is quite a clear picture of what people in the US think would happen should Trump face off against Harris in the election in November.
538's monitored polls ending Monday were still giving Trump an edge, but polls ending Tuesday are already starting to show Harris in the lead. You can just feel the vibe shift from the very first days. It's quite wild. pic.twitter.com/w59giMbiC2
— Sami Viitamäki (@SamiV) July 24, 2024
A Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday following Biden’s announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.
It showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
The two presidential hopefuls were tied at 44% in a 15-16 July poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a 1-2 July poll, both within the same margin of error.
In a CBS/YouGov poll carried out between 16 and 18 July, three days before Biden announced he would withdraw, Trump had a lead over Harris of 51% to 48% (with 1% stating, 'I would not vote'). In the same poll, Trump had a bigger lead over Biden, of 52% to 47%, indicating the Democrats have a better chance of winning now he has withdrawn.
In a poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos on 16 July, however, Harris and Trump both polled at 44% among those surveyed, suggesting any race between the pair could be closer than expected.
In the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt on his life, Trump had a major bump in the polls, with an Economist/YouGov survey putting him on 44% to Harris's 39%. That same poll had Biden doing better than Harris, losing to Trump with a more narrow margin, trailing by 43% to 41%.
