West African leaders plan to meet on Niger but options are few

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Written by northsouth

Category: Africa

Published: 10 August 2023

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By SAM MEDNICK and CHINEDU ASADU

NIAMEY, Niger — West African heads of state are scheduled to meet Thursday after Niger’s military junta defied their deadline to reinstate the nation’s deposed president, but analysts say the Economic Community of West African States may be running out of options as support fades for a military intervention.

As Niger’s junta turns away most efforts at mediation, one analyst asserted that Russian meddling in the country has spiked in the two weeks since mutinous soldiers overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has refused to step down and is under house arrest.

The junta announced a new government on Wednesday night. More than half of the 21 positions were filled by civilians. The rest were military appointments.

Niger was seen as the last country in the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert that Western nations could partner with to counter jihadi violence linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that has killed thousands and displaced millions of people. The international community is scrambling to find a peaceful solution to the country’s leadership crisis.

“Let me tell you, any coup that has succeeded beyond 24 hours has come to stay. So, as it is, they are speaking from the point of strength and advantage,” Oladeinde Ariyo, a security analyst in neighboring Nigeria, said. “So, negotiating with them will have to be on their terms.”

Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is leading the ECOWAS push. On Wednesday, a Nigerian delegation led by the Emir of Kano, Khalifa Muhammad Sanusi, met the junta’s leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani. The emir was one of few people allowed to meet Tchiani.

Acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with the coup leaders earlier this week but was denied access to both Tchiani and Bazoum. A separate delegation comprised of ECOWAS, the United Nations and the African Union was barred from coming at all.

West Africa’s regional bloc has failed to stem past coups throughout the region. Niger is the fourth country in the 15-member state bloc to have experienced a coup in the last three years.

The bloc imposed harsh economic and travel sanctions and threatened to use military force if Bazoum was not reinstated by Sunday, a deadline the junta ignored. There is no indication the coup leaders are willing to budge on reinstating Bazoum, who says he is being held hostage in his residence with his wife and son.

An advisor to Bazoum who was not authorized to speak about the situation due to the sensitivity of it told The Associated Press on Wednesday that the family is without water and electricity and subsisting on rice and canned goods because food is running out.

U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said he was very concerned about reports of the “deplorable living conditions” Bazoum and his family were in and called for the president’s immediate release.

But as the junta becomes more entrenched, the options for negotiations are becoming limited, said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow with the Clingendael Institute.

“It’s very difficult to say what might come out of it, but the fact that the initial deadline passed without intervention and that the (junta) has continued to hold a fairly firm line, indicate that they think they can outlast this pressure,” he said.

The main parties’ positions are dangerously far apart, according to the International Crisis Group, which said that if dialogue is going to succeed, each side is going to have to make concessions, which they’ve so far refused to do.

Since seizing power, the junta has cut ties with France and exploited popular grievances toward its former colonial ruler to shore up its support base. It also has asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner, which operates in a handful of African countries and has been accused of committing human rights abuses.

Moscow is using Wagner and other channels of influence to discredit Western nations, Lou Osborn, an investigator with All Eyes on Wagner, a project focusing on the Wagner group, asserted to The Associated Press.

Tactics include using social media to spread rumors about Wagner’s upcoming arrival to Niger and employing fake accounts to mobilize demonstrations and spread false narratives, Osborn said. “Their objective is not to support the junta or an alternative political approach but to sow discord, create chaos, destabilize,” she said.

She pointed to a Telegram post on Wednesday by an alleged Wagner operative, Alexander Ivanov, asserting that France had begun the “mass removal of children” likely to be used for slave labor and sexual exploitation.

It was not immediately possible to verify the allegations. Wagner’s media arm is effectively disbanded and hasn’t replied to requests for comment since Niger’s coup.

While there’s no reason to believe Russia was behind the coup, it will leverage the opportunity to gain a stronger foothold in the region, something Western nations were trying to avoid, Sahel experts say.

France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and along with other European nations have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance into propping up the country’s forces. Much of that aid was suspended after members of the presidential guard overthrew Bazoum.

Meanwhile, Niger’s approximately 25 million people are feeling the impact of the sanctions.

Some neighborhoods in the capital, Niamey are living in the dark with little access to electricity and there are frequent power cuts across the city. The country gets up to 90% of its power from Nigeria, which has cut off some of the supply.

Since the coup, Hamidou Albade, 48, said he’s been unable to run his shop on the outskirts of Niamey because there’s been no electricity. He also works as a taxi driver but lost business there, too, because a lot of of his foreign clients have left the city.

“It’s very difficult, I just sit at home doing nothing,” he said. Still, he supports the junta. “We’re suffering now, but I know the junta will find a solution to get out of the crisis,” he said.

Pro-coup protesters attack French embassy in Niger

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Written by northsouth

Category: Africa

Published: 31 July 2023

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By SAM MEDNICK

NIAMEY. Niger - Thousands of people backing the coup in Niger marched through the streets of the capital denouncing France, the country’s former colonial power, waving Russian flags, and setting a door at the French Embassy ablaze on Sunday before the army broke up the crowd.

Demonstrators in Niger are openly resentful of France, and Russia is seen by some as a powerful alternative. The nature of Russia’s involvement in the rallies, if any, isn’t clear but some protesters have carried Russian flags, along with signs reading “Down with France” and supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian mercenary group Wagner is operating in neighboring Mali, and under Putin Russia has expanded its influence in West Africa. The new junta’s leaders have not said whether they intend to ally themselves with Moscow or stick with Niger’s Western partners.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that attacks on France and its interests would not be tolerated and anyone who attacks French citizens will see an immediate response.

Niger, a French colony until 1960, had been seen as the West’s last reliable partner battling jihadists in Africa’s Sahel region. France has 1,500 soldiers in the country who conduct joint operations with the Nigeriens. The United States and other European countries have helped train the nation’s troops.

At an emergency meeting Sunday, the West African bloc known as ECOWAS said that it was suspending relations with Niger, and authorized the use of force if President Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated within a week. The African Union has issued its own 15-day ultimatum to the junta in Niger to reinstall the democratically elected government.

Shortly after the ECOWAS meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, Chadian President Mahamat Deby arrived in Niger to lead mediation efforts, according to the Chad state radio station.

ECOWAS has struggled to make a definitive impact on the region’s political crises in the past but Bazoum was democratically elected two years ago in Niger’s first peaceful transfer of power since independence from France in 1960.

Members of the Niger military announced on Wednesday that they had deposed Bazoum and on Friday named Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani as the country’s new leader, adding Niger to a growing list of military regimes in West Africa’s Sahel region.

Some leaders of the mutiny said they overthrew Bazoum because he wasn’t able to secure the nation against growing jihadi violence. But some analysts and Nigeriens say that was a pretext for a takeover driven by internal power struggles.

“We couldn’t expect a coup in Niger because there’s no social, political or security situation that would justify that the military take the power,” Prof. Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey, told The Associated Press.

He said Bazoum wanted to replace the head of the presidential guard, Tchiani. Tchiani, who also goes by Omar, was loyal to Bazoum’s predecessor, and that sparked the problems, Boubacar said.

Niger’s dire security situation is not as bad as that in neighboring Burkina Faso or Mali, which have also been battling an Islamic insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Last year, Niger was the only one of the three to see a decline in violence, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

Some taking part in Sunday’s rally warned outside bodies to stay away.

“I would like also to say to the European Union, African Union and ECOWAS, please, please stay out of our business,” Oumar Barou Moussa said at the demonstration. “It’s time for us to take our lives, to work for ourselves. It’s time for us to talk about our freedom and liberty.”

Niger has the most at stake of any country in the Sahel if it turns away from the West, given the millions of dollars of military assistance it has received from abroad.

On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the continued security and economic cooperation with the U.S. hinges on the release of Bazoum — who remains under house arrest — and “the immediate restoration of the democratic order in Niger.”

Macron said he’d spoken to Bazoum and his predecessor on Sunday. On Saturday France suspended all development and financial aid to Niger.

The 15-nation ECOWAS bloc has unsuccessfully tried to restore democracies in nations where the military took power in recent years. Four nations are run by military regimes in West and Central Africa, where there have been nine successful or attempted coups since 2020.

While the bloc has struggled to have much impact, the measures placed on Niger Sunday show the gravity of the situation, said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow with the Clingendael Institute.

“The strenuous measures they have put in place or threatened to put in place show not only how seriously they are taking this crisis, but also the urgency the regional body and larger international community feel in trying to force a return to normal that will likely prove elusive,” he said.

The response from the bloc towards Niger differs from how it dealt with recent coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, which did not involve the threat of force if constitutional rule wasn’t reinstated.

In the last few decades it has sent troops into member countries a handful of times.

In the 1990s, ECOWAS intervened in Liberia during its civil war. In 2017 it intervened in The Gambia to prevent the new president’s predecessor, Yahya Jammeh, from disrupting the handover of power. Approximately 7,000 troops from Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal entered, according to the Global Observatory, which provides analysis on peace and security issues.

Economic sanctions could have a deep impact on Nigeriens, who live in the third-poorest country in the world, according to the latest U.N. data. The country relies on imports from Nigeria for up to 90% of its power, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. The sanctions would suspend all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS member states and Niger.

In a televised address Saturday, Col. Major Amadou Abdramane, one of the soldiers who ousted Bazoum, accused the meeting of making a “plan of aggression” against Niger and said the country would defend itself.

“Tensions with the military are still ongoing. There could be another coup after this one, or a stronger intervention from ECOWAS, potentially military force,” said Tatiana Smirnova, a researcher in conflict resolution and peace missions at the Centre FrancoPaix. “Many actors are also trying to negotiate, but the outcome is unclear.”

Macron says Niger's Bazoum ‘reachable,' in ‘good health'

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Written by alib

Category: Africa

Published: 28 July 2023

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PARIS - French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum early Friday, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told Agence France-Presse. According to Colonna, Macron said Bazoum is "reachable" and "in good health."

Leaders of Niger's army have declared their support for Wednesday's overthrow of Bazoum, defying calls from across the globe condemning the takeover and for respect of the rule of law and the country's democratic order.

Abdel Fatau Musah, commissioner for political affairs and security of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, told VOA's James Butty, "Bazoum remains the legitimate and legal president and must be reinstated as soon as possible."

Musah said, "The heads of state of the region will hold an extraordinary summit, an emergency summit, on the situation over the weekend to determine what measures to take to ensure the reinstatement."

Patrice Talon, the president of Benin, is headed to Niamey, Niger's capital, in an effort to mediate the crisis.

Bazoum's whereabouts remained unclear Thursday, a day after a group of soldiers from the presidential guard detained him at the presidential palace and later announced his ouster on state television.

The army, in a statement released to social media, said it had decided to back the coup to prevent "a deadly confrontation" that could lead to a "bloodbath" in Niger.

Nigerien Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massaoudou said the "legal and legitimate" power remains with the elected president.

There was looting in the streets of Niamey on Thursday and burning cars. Earlier Thursday, the streets were calm, according to VOA's French to Africa service which reported a group of demonstrators had gathered to support the new military junta, with some waving Nigerien and Russian flags.

Speaking to reporters in New York, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged coup leaders to return the democratically elected Bazoum to power.

"I want to speak directly to those detaining him," he said. "Release President Bazoum immediately and unconditionally. Stop obstructing the democratic governance of the country and respect the rule of law."

Guterres expressed worry about the instability plaguing West and Central Africa.

"If you look at the region, you have a dramatic increase of terrorist activity in Mali, Burkina Faso, in Niger and coming closer and closer to the countries of the coast," he said. "You have military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, now eventually in Niger. A fragile transition in Chad, and a horrible situation in Sudan. So we are witnessing that the whole belt south of the Sahara is becoming an extremely problematic area with terrible consequences for their populations and for peace and security in the African continent and further afield."

The presidential guard members who seized power suggested Niger's insecurity was a reason for their actions.

"We, the defense and security forces ... decided to put an end to the regime," said Colonel Amadou Abdramane, shown seated and flanked by nine other officers wearing fatigues, reading a statement. His statement mentioned "the deteriorating security situation and bad governance."

Abdramane said all institutions of the republic were suspended, that the country's borders were closed, and a nationwide curfew declared.

The soldiers warned against foreign intervention, and said they would respect Bazoum's well-being, Reuters reported.

In a message posted Thursday to the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, Bazoum said democracy would prevail in his country. "The hard won gains will be safeguarded," he said. "All Nigeriens who love democracy and freedom would want this."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Thursday in New Zealand that he had spoken with Bazoum and "made clear that the United States resolutely supports him as the democratically elected president of Niger."

ECOWAS has condemned the events in Niger and called on what it described as coup plotters to free the president "immediately and without any condition."

The ECOWAS statement vowed to hold those involved in the plot responsible for the safety of the president, his family, members of the government and the general public.

Others condemning the apparent coup attempt included the chairman of the African Union commission, Faki Mahamat, and former colonial power France, which has about 1,500 soldiers in Niger helping the government battle Islamist militants.

Abdoul Aziz Garba Birimaka, Niger's presidential special security adviser, told VOA's French to Africa service the main question is what led to the attempted coup.

"Indeed, that is the question, what led us to this extreme? What is happening? Why? ... How could all this have happened without any suspicions as we learn that someone who is supposed to protect is now holding you [against your will]," Birimaka said. "Those are many questions that remain unanswered for the moment."

The West African state is one of the region's most unstable. If successful, Wednesday's coup would be the fifth military takeover since the country won independence from France in 1960.

Michael Shurkin, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told VOA, "President Bazoum has been one of the most effective leaders in the area, if not the most effective leader. He's somebody who by many standards is doing all the right things in terms of trying to deal with the country's vast problems and working effectively with Niger's many Western security partners, including France in the United States."

He said, "A coup removes from the region a democratically elected and effective civilian official, replacing it with, first of all, a necessary period of uncertainty as the Nigeriens have to figure out what to do and make all the next steps. ... Also, it's a huge blow to the West, which has really been turning to [Niger] to presume that sort of like it's its last effort to try to shape events in the Sahel as the Sahel otherwise has been swirling down the drain."